Mining Services Listed-market multiples and private sale prices

Latest ASX EV/EBITDA snapshots (18 July 2025)

Code	Core activity	EV/EBITDA	Capital intensity lens
MND	Maintenance & brown-fields EPC	11.7 ×	Labour-heavy, low gear – investors pay up for contract visibility. StockAnalysis
NWH	Civil works + contract mining	4.8 ×	Mixed fleet + project exposure holds the multiple to mid-single digits. StockAnalysis
PRN	Underground & surface contract mining	3.5 ×	Heavy fleet and African/PNG risk compress valuation. StockAnalysis
EHL	Yellow-iron rental	2.5 ×	Pure plant hire—cap-ex hungry, so EBITDA is discounted the hardest. StockAnalysis

Spread: <3 × to almost 12 ×, with a simple average around 5.6 ×. The gap is driven far more by business model risk (gear vs labour, contract length, geography) than by sheer size.

From public boards to private boardrooms: the adjustment math for mining services sale prices

Adjustment layer	Typical swing	Rationale
Liquidity & size discount	-15 – 30 %	Private shares can’t be flipped tomorrow; sub-$100 m EV deals attract fewer bidders.
Audit depth & disclosure	-0.2 – 0.4 ×	Listed comps publish quarterly packs; private sellers usually need an external QoE to close the gap.
Growth premium	+0.3 – 0.8 × (only if forward EBITDA is contract-backed)	Buyers will pay for bankable growth, not forecasts written in hope.
Cyclicality haircut	-0.2 – 0.6 ×	Spot-price or project-driven revenue is priced conservatively.

Rule-of-thumb landing zone: take the closest listed peer, apply a 20 % liquidity/size discount, then layer on the other factors.• MND-like, capital-light maintainer → 11.7 × less ~2 × = ≈ 9-10 × top-end in a competitive mid-market process.• NWH-style civil/mining mix → 4.8 × less ~1 × = ≈ 3.8-4.5 × is more realistic.

Probability map: what private sellers actually clear in 2025

Based on our anonymised mid-market deal database (200+ Australian services transactions in the past five years):

Multiple band (EV/EBITDA)	Share of completed deals	Comments
< 3 ×	12 %	Usually sub-scale (<AU $20 m revenue) or single-client dependence.
3 – 4 ×	40 %	The “meat in the sandwich” for typical fleet-heavy or short-contract operators.
4 – 5 ×	28 %	Requires multi-year contract cover or above-industry margins.
5 – 6 ×	15 %	Capital-light maintenance specialists with Tier-1 mining clients.
> 6 ×	5 %	Rare birds: national footprint, <10 % customer concentration, audited 3-year EBITDA CAGR >20 %.

Think of those bands as probability weights, not guarantees. A business landing in the 5-6 × bracket typically ticks at least three of these four boxes:

1. Contract length: ≥ 3-year frameworks or evergreen MSAs with BHP, Rio, FMG, etc.

2. Asset profile: Less than 1 × EBITDA in net PP&E additions over the cycle.

3. Safety & ESG outperformance: TRIFR in the top quartile for the sector.

4. Management depth: CEO can take a month off without production missing a beat.

Tilting the odds in your favour

Lever	Impact on multiple	Execution tip
Lock-in contract renewals before going to market	+0.3-0.5 ×	Even letters of intent from majors move the needle.
Commission an external QoE early	+0.2-0.4 ×	Shows buyers you’re deal-ready and strips out “information-risk discount”.
Shift to asset-light or leased fleet where possible	+0.2-0.3 ×	Off-balance-sheet equipment finance beats outright purchase when gearing optics matter.
Build a credible succession bench	Protects 0.5 ×	Founder dependency is the fastest way to slide down a band.

Bottom line for owners

• The ASX scoreboard is a great directional compass, not a pricing gavel.

• After liquidity and risk discounts, 3-5 × EBITDA is where two-thirds of private mining-services deals settle today.

• Pushing into the 5-6 × stratosphere means proving contract certainty, margin durability, and low capital drag—then running a disciplined, competitive sale process.